India faces continuous lack of electricity for the next four months as a rapid growth in demand from air conditioning and cooling loads to flood the generation available on the network.
The Indian Grid reported a 200.570 megawatt (MW) record load on July 7, 2021, at the peak of last summer, according to the National Expenses Corporate Shipping Center System Operation (Posoco).
Since mid-March, the grid routinely reported a maximum load above 195,000 MW, including the peak of 199,584 MW on April 8 – less than 0.5% below the record.
During the peak of the night, when no sun generation is available and inventory even more stretched, the burden has reached a recording level in recent weeks.
A very high burden has arrived far earlier this year, long before the most intense summer heat period, implies a grid in trouble.
In the symptoms of the struggle to meet the demand, the grid frequency has faltered since mid-March, dropping sharply below the target, with longer and more severe visits under a safe operating range.
Chronic under the frequency is a sign, the grid cannot fulfill the full demand from the customer and make the planned shedding plan or output that is not planned more likely.
India has a frequency target of 50.00 cycles per second (Hertz), with a grid controller assigned to remain stable between 49.90 Hz and 50.05 Hz to maintain a network in safe and reliable conditions.
Grid controls began to decide some loads automatically if the frequency slowed to 49.2 Hz with further shedding loads at 49.0 Hz, 48.8 Hz and 48.6 Hz (“Overview of the Indian electric grid code”, 2020).
In addition, relays in the northern and western grid areas are armed to decide the load automatically if the frequency falls too fast and falls below 49.9 Hz, while the relay in the south is armed to start loading shedding at 49.5 Hz.
But the frequency has often been below the target for so long in the past few weeks, sometimes the system appears has been forced to operate in accordance with informal targets that are much lower because of the inadequate generation.
Since mid-March, the average frequency is only 49.95 Hz and has been under a lower operating threshold of 49.90 Hz more than 23% of the time.
On April 7, the average frequency fell as low as 49.84 Hz and was below the bottom threshold for 63% of the day, according to data from Posoco.
Low coal stock
Power manufacturer coal supplies remain very low, limit their ability to run coal-fuel units with full capacity to meet demand.
The generator connected with the grid has coal stock equivalent to consumption worth less than 9 days compared to 12 days at the end of April 2021 and 18 days in 2019.
Inventories have not yet recovered since falling to critical low only 4 days at the end of September 2021, when the lack of fuel resulted in a widespread power cut.
Fast growth in electricity demand ensures fuel consumption remains strong during the traditional winter stock development period while high coal prices are also discouraged.
The Indian train Ministry announced on April 12 that coal from the domestic mine and import terminal will be prioritized on the train network until the end of June to increase stock.
But the level of coal stock which is very low in power plants at the beginning of the maximum annual demand period shows more or less unavoidable power shortages for the next few months.
air conditioning
In contrast to extensive outage blackouts in October last year, the current problem was the result of strong demand and supply problems.
The Indian Grid is under increased pressure from rapid growth in the load of commercial air conditioners and housing, cooling and other burdens, increasing electricity consumption at all levels of coal stockings.
The temperature in North India has been very high for the time of the year since mid-March, producing a rapid increase in electrical demand.
The peak daily load in seven days centered on April 8 was more than 9% higher than the same period the previous year.
In an effort to limit the increase in electricity demand20, the government’s energy efficiency bureau has mandated the default setting of 24 ° C for AC sold in India since 2020.
Users can overwrite default but the government relies on inertia to set 24 ° C as a standard comfort temperature.
The average daily temperature rose above 24 ° C in New Delhi in early March 13 and the request of power had soared since then.
The arrival of the beginning of hot weather means there are 182 degrees of coolers as far as this year compared to the long-term season average 99.
But the temperature tends to continue to rise to the top at the end of June or early July, pushing electricity demand even higher for the next 2-4 months.
Given that the grid has struggled, it is impossible to serve a higher load between May and August, making shedding loads and other power cuts more or less inevitable during the extraordinary hot weather period.
John Kemp is Reuters market analyst. The view that was revealed was his own
